The notebook

The season, counted.

What happened this season, drawn from every game we hold, and how we count it. No picks, ever.

The season, counted2 min readThe last four: every game of the AFL preliminary finalists' 2026 seasonsFremantle, Sydney, Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn finished first to fourth and are the last four: every game of their 2026 seasons, side by side.The season, counted4 min readDoes rain change an AFL game?Rain takes about 20 points off an AFL game. Only 13 games in eight seasons were properly wet, and the gap between games is twice the gap between wet and dry.The season, counted1 min readFremantle went from 13th to top, and stayed there for 14 roundsRound by round: how the AFL's minor premiers climbed the ladder, what their margins looked like on the way, and how their finals have gone so far.The season, counted4 min readWhere the NBL shoots fromEvery shot of the 2026 NBL season on one court: the rim, the arc, and the 8.5% of shots taken in the middle of the floor, where nobody wants to be.The season, counted2 min read34.7 a game: Nick Daicos against every AFL playerNick Daicos averaged 34.7 disposals a game in 2026, the most of 472 AFL players with 10 or more games, and had 35 or more in 13 of 23 games.The season, counted2 min readThe last six: every game of the NRL finalists' 2026 seasonsPenrith, the Warriors, the Dolphins, the Roosters, Cronulla and Newcastle are the last six in the NRL finals: every game of their season, side by side.The season, counted3 min readThe longest carry: who runs the ball in the NRL, and how farPhillip Sami ran 5,384 metres in 2026, more than anyone. Every NRL player's running by the metre, and the props who cover the same ground in half the time.The season, counted2 min readThirty tries each: the NRL try-scorer raceThomas Jenkins and Alex Johnston are level on 30 tries after Finals Week 1: how the race ran round by round, and the two very different ways they got there.The season, counted3 min readMinnesota on top: the 2026 WNBA table, week by weekHow Minnesota Lynx went from 10th to top of the 2026 WNBA table and stayed there, with every team's point differential, the longest streaks and home v away.

How we count

The method behind every figure in the notebook.

Research method4 min read

Sample size: the number next to the number

70% off 20 games and 70% off 3 games are not the same claim. The range a fair coin covers at 5, 10 and 20 games, and the four floors this site uses.

Research method4 min read

Wet weather splits: what a wet game actually changes

What counts as a wet game here, how seldom one happens, why most twenty-game windows have no wet split at all, and what the game rows say the rain does.

Research method4 min read

Why the opponent matters more than the player

Everyone checks the head-to-head. It is two or three games. What the other club gives up is measured over a whole season — how that table is built, and how to read it.

Research method2 min read

Reading a hit rate like a professional

Hit rate vs implied chance vs the gap between them — the three-number frame behind every decision on the site.

Still to come. Tell us which one you'd actually read.

Inside the product · planned

How 2,859 games get to your phone every day

The nightly robot, the fail-loud rule, and the round-numbering bug that nearly shipped.

Inside the product · planned

Why we show the price but never a pick

The licensing maths, the incentive problem, and why the number you type in beats any list we could sell you.