Without Cleary: 20-4 when Luai played, 10-11 when neither did
every Penrith game without Nathan Cleary, 2021-2026 · filled = won20-4with Jarome Luai
10-11with neither
Show the numbers
| Date | Round | Opponent | Result | Luai | Other regulars out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-03-25 | R3 | v Melbourne Storm | W 12-10 | played | 0 of 13 |
| 2021-06-04 | R13 | at Wests Tigers | L 6-26 | out | 5 of 13 |
| 2021-06-11 | R14 | at Cronulla Sharks | L 18-19 | out | 3 of 13 |
| 2021-07-02 | R16 | v Parramatta Eels | W 13-12 | played | 2 of 13 |
| 2021-07-18 | R18 | at New Zealand Warriors | W 30-16 | out | 13 of 13 |
| 2021-07-24 | R19 | v Brisbane Broncos | W 18-12 | played | 1 of 13 |
| 2021-08-01 | R20 | at Melbourne Storm | L 10-37 | played | 4 of 13 |
| 2021-08-07 | R21 | at Sydney Roosters | W 20-14 | played | 4 of 13 |
| 2022-03-10 | R1 | v Manly Sea Eagles | W 28-6 | played | 1 of 13 |
| 2022-03-18 | R2 | at St George Illawarra Dragons | W 20-16 | played | 1 of 13 |
| 2022-03-26 | R3 | v Newcastle Knights | W 38-20 | played | 2 of 13 |
| 2022-06-03 | R13 | v Canterbury Bulldogs | W 30-18 | out | 3 of 13 |
| 2022-07-17 | R18 | at Wests Tigers | W 18-16 | out | 5 of 13 |
| 2022-08-06 | R21 | at Canberra Raiders | W 26-6 | out | 1 of 13 |
| 2022-08-11 | R22 | v Melbourne Storm | L 0-16 | out | 3 of 13 |
| 2022-08-18 | R23 | at South Sydney Rabbitohs | W 26-22 | out | 2 of 13 |
| 2022-08-26 | R24 | v New Zealand Warriors | W 46-12 | played | 3 of 13 |
| 2022-09-03 | R25 | at North Queensland Cowboys | L 8-38 | out | 11 of 13 |
| 2023-06-10 | R15 | at Sydney Roosters | W 30-6 | played | 1 of 13 |
| 2023-06-16 | R16 | at North Queensland Cowboys | L 23-27 | out | 4 of 13 |
| 2023-06-24 | R17 | v Newcastle Knights | W 20-12 | out | 3 of 13 |
| 2023-06-30 | R18 | at Melbourne Storm | W 34-16 | played | 1 of 13 |
| 2023-07-16 | R20 | at Dolphins | W 24-14 | played | 3 of 13 |
| 2024-03-28 | R4 | at Sydney Roosters | W 22-16 | played | 1 of 13 |
| 2024-04-06 | R5 | at Manly Sea Eagles | L 18-32 | played | 0 of 13 |
| 2024-04-20 | R7 | v Wests Tigers | W 22-6 | played | 1 of 13 |
| 2024-05-02 | R9 | at South Sydney Rabbitohs | W 42-12 | played | 1 of 13 |
| 2024-05-19 | R11 | at New Zealand Warriors | L 20-22 | played | 1 of 13 |
| 2024-05-25 | R12 | at Cronulla Sharks | W 42-0 | played | 1 of 13 |
| 2024-06-01 | R13 | v St George Illawarra Dragons | L 10-22 | out | 6 of 13 |
| 2024-06-09 | R14 | v Manly Sea Eagles | W 32-22 | played | 2 of 13 |
| 2024-06-16 | R15 | at Newcastle Knights | W 26-18 | played | 3 of 13 |
| 2024-06-30 | R17 | v North Queensland Cowboys | L 6-16 | out | 4 of 13 |
| 2024-07-05 | R18 | at Brisbane Broncos | W 14-6 | played | 2 of 13 |
| 2024-08-24 | R25 | at Canberra Raiders | L 18-22 | played | 3 of 13 |
| 2024-08-30 | R26 | v South Sydney Rabbitohs | W 34-12 | played | 0 of 13 |
| 2024-09-07 | R27 | v Gold Coast Titans | W 18-12 | played | 1 of 13 |
| 2025-03-27 | R4 | at South Sydney Rabbitohs | L 18-28 | out | 3 of 13 |
| 2025-05-24 | R12 | v Newcastle Knights | L 6-25 | out | 5 of 13 |
| 2025-06-21 | R16 | at New Zealand Warriors | W 28-18 | out | 3 of 13 |
| 2025-07-18 | R20 | v South Sydney Rabbitohs | W 30-10 | out | 3 of 13 |
| 2025-08-28 | R26 | at Canterbury Bulldogs | L 4-28 | out | 13 of 13 |
| 2026-05-31 | R13 | v New Zealand Warriors | W 20-18 | out | 2 of 13 |
| 2026-06-20 | R16 | at Gold Coast Titans | L 18-19 | out | 3 of 13 |
| 2026-07-03 | R18 | v South Sydney Rabbitohs | W 36-14 | out | 3 of 13 |
The short version
- Since 2021, Penrith are 92-24-1 with Nathan Cleary and 30-15 without, and they have never played a final without Cleary. With Cleary they win by 14.0 a game; without, by 4.7.
- In 24 of the 45 games without Cleary, Jarome Luai played, and Penrith went 20-4. In the other 21, with neither of them, 10-11, outscored by 1.6 a game.
- Those 21 were mostly Origin season or the rest round, 14 of them, with 4.7 other regulars out a game against 1.6 when Luai played.
Why this was worth a look
2026 was the year Nathan Cleary silenced the critics: a first Dally M, an Origin decider and the minor premiership. Then, in the preliminary final, Cleary ran out on a broken foot and about ten minutes later broke the other ankle. Two surgeries later, the best case going is a Round One return, and nobody really knows. So now everyone's asking the question Cleary never had to answer: are Penrith only great because of Cleary, or are they a machine that wins no matter who plays halfback?
The machine has a point
Without Cleary since 2021, Penrith are 30-15, . That is top-four form. In 2024 Cleary missed 14 games, Penrith went 9-5 in them, and won the premiership anyway.
- with Cleary
- 92-24-1
- 78.6%, winning by 14.0
- without
- 30-15
- 66.7%, winning by 4.7
- finals with Cleary
- 18
- none without
Who had the wheel
Here is the split nobody runs. Of the 45 games without Cleary, Luai played 24, and Penrith went 20-4, winning by 10.3. In the 21 with neither, 10-11, 18.1 points for and 19.7 against.
With neither Cleary nor Luai, Penrith won 47.6% of games
Penrith's win %, 2021-2026, by which of the two halves played · beside each: record and average marginShow the numbers
| Who played | Games | Record | Win % | For | Against | Margin | Other regulars out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleary and Luai | 67 | 58-9 | 86.6% | 27.9 | 11.2 | +16.6 | 1.4 |
| Cleary, no Luai | 50 | 34-15-1 | 68.0% | 27.1 | 16.6 | +10.5 | 1.4 |
| Luai, no Cleary | 24 | 20-4 | 83.3% | 25.0 | 14.8 | +10.3 | 1.6 |
| Neither | 21 | 10-11 | 47.6% | 18.1 | 19.7 | −1.6 | 4.7 |
Who else was missing
That split is not only about Luai. The games without either half were mostly Origin season and the rest round before the finals, 14 of the 21, when Penrith lose half their side. Count each season's 13 most-used players other than Cleary and Luai: 4.7 of them were out a game when neither half played, against 1.6 when Luai played and 1.4 when both did.
- other regulars out, Luai playing
- 1.6
- no Cleary · 20-4
- other regulars out, neither playing
- 4.7
- 10-11
- in Origin season or the rest round
- 14 of 21
- June and July, and the last round
So it was never just Cleary, and it was never just the machine. It was the depth behind Cleary, and when Cleary and half the side were missing at once, Penrith were a coin toss.
What changes without Cleary
The attack drops, and so does the defence. Penrith kick 628 metres a game with Cleary and 549 without; they score 4.62 tries and concede 2.38 with Cleary, 3.84 and 3.02 without.
- team kick metres a game
- 628 → 549
- tries scored a game
- 4.62 → 3.84
- tries conceded a game
- 2.38 → 3.02
Season by season
Most seasons Cleary only missed a handful of games, so single seasons are small samples. The 45 together are the number to trust.
Cleary missed 14 games in 2024, the most of any season, and Penrith won the premiership
Penrith games without Nathan Cleary, each season · beside each: the record, and how many of them Luai playedShow the numbers
| Season | Games | With Cleary | Without | Luai played (without Cleary) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 28 | 19-1 | 5-3 | 5 |
| 2022 | 27 | 15-2 | 8-2 | 4 |
| 2023 | 27 | 17-5 | 4-1 | 3 |
| 2024 | 27 | 11-2 | 9-5 | 12 |
| 2025 | 27 | 13-8 | 2-3 | 0 |
| 2026 | 26 | 17-6 | 2-1 | 0 |
What this doesn't tell you
Cleary played without Luai only a handful of times while both were at Penrith, so this cannot measure Luai alone. Twenty-one games with neither half is enough to say something, not everything, and the opposition moves a result too. Luai is at the Tigers now, so 2027 is the first time we find out.
The working
- Games
- Every complete Penrith game, 2021 to 2026, finals included: 162.
- Played
- A player played when their stat row has minutes above zero. So the 2026 preliminary final against Newcastle Knights, lost 14-22, counts as a Cleary game: 10 minutes off the bench before the injury.
- Other regulars
- Each season's 13 most-used Penrith players other than Cleary and Luai, so a player who has left the club is never counted as missing. Origin season is June and July; the rest round is the last round before the finals. 13 of the games with neither half were in Origin season and 1 in the rest round.
- Rates
- Team kick metres and tries are Penrith's player rows summed for each game; tries conceded are the opponent's. Then averaged per game.
- The injury
- Cleary started the preliminary final on the bench with a stress fracture in the right foot (SEN, 27 September), then broke the left fibula and ruptured the syndesmosis after about ten minutes (ESPN, SEN, 5 October). The club has given no return date; Round One is a physio's best case (Yahoo, 5 October).
- 2026
- First Dally M (ABC); the Origin decider and the Wally Lewis Medal (1News). Ivan Cleary's last season as coach is 2027 (ESPN).
- Read
- 13 October 2026, from Punt's database.
- Not in this article
- Who replaced Cleary at halfback each game, the opposition's strength, and prices.
- Sources and terms
- Every source Punt uses, with its licence, is on Credits. The terms are defined in the Glossary, and the methodology page sets out where every number comes from and the rules it follows.