After week 6, the running backs kept scoring. The rest fell back.
2025 regular season · one square a week · filled: scored a touchdown · blank: bye · dot: no rowShow the numbers
| Player | Position | Club | Weeks 1–6 | Week 7 to 18 | Touchdowns, weeks 1–6 | Touchdowns, week 7 on |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 4 of 6 | 8 of 11 | 4 | 13 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | 4 of 6 | 6 of 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | GB | 4 of 5 | 6 of 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 4 of 6 | 6 of 11 | 5 | 13 |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 4 of 6 | 6 of 11 | 8 | 12 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LAR | 4 of 6 | 6 of 11 | 5 | 8 |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 5 of 6 | 5 of 10 | 6 | 6 |
| James Cook III | RB | BUF | 4 of 6 | 5 of 11 | 5 | 9 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | 4 of 6 | 4 of 10 | 4 | 5 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | 4 of 6 | 0 of 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | 4 of 5 | 4 of 10 | 5 | 6 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | 4 of 5 | 3 of 10 | 4 | 3 |
| George Pickens | WR | DAL | 5 of 6 | 3 of 11 | 6 | 3 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | WR | IND | 4 of 6 | 3 of 11 | 4 | 3 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | WSH | 4 of 6 | 2 of 10 | 4 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | 4 of 6 | 2 of 10 | 5 | 3 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | 4 of 5 | 1 of 7 | 5 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | 4 of 6 | 1 of 8 | 4 | 1 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | 4 of 6 | 1 of 11 | 5 | 1 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 4 | 0 |
Why?
Anytime touchdown needs one score: a run, a catch or a return. A thrown touchdown doesn't count. Six weeks into a season, a player who has scored in 4 of them looks like a pattern. I wanted to see what 2025's hot starts did for the rest of the season.
The running backs kept scoring
Over all of 2025, scoring in half their games was rare: only 27 of the 325 running backs, receivers, tight ends and quarterbacks with 10 or more games did it, led by Christian McCaffrey on 12 of 17.
Then there were the hot starts. 20 players scored in 4 or more of their week 1–6 games, 82 of 116 together. From week 7 to 18, the same 20 scored in 72 of 188. Split by position, it's two stories:
10 running backs69%41 of 59 · weeks 1–653%52 of 99 · week 7 on
The other 1072%41 of 57 · weeks 1–622%20 of 89 · week 7 on
The running backs still scored in about half their games. The other 10 fell to about 1 in 5. McCaffrey scored in of 11 after week 6, more often than before it. George Pickens, the hottest receiver start at 5 of 6, scored in of 11.
Back to the usual rate
Each position has a usual rate: how often its regulars scored across all of 2025. Here is where each group of hot starters began and finished against it.
The receivers fell back to the receiver rate. The running backs didn't.
share of games with a touchdown, 2025 · ring: weeks 1–6 · dot: week 7 on · tick: the position's usual rateRunning backs10 hot starters · 41/59 → 52/99
Receivers7 hot starters · 29/40 → 13/61
Tight ends1 hot starter · 4/5 → 4/10
Quarterbacks2 hot starters · 8/12 → 3/18
Show the numbers
| Position | Hot starters | Weeks 1–6 | Week 7 on | Usual rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Running backs | 10 | 41 of 59 (69%) | 52 of 99 (53%) | 346 of 1,278 (27.1%) |
| Receivers | 7 | 29 of 40 (73%) | 13 of 61 (21%) | 387 of 1,977 (19.6%) |
| Tight ends | 1 | 4 of 5 (80%) | 4 of 10 (40%) | 180 of 942 (19.1%) |
| Quarterbacks | 2 | 8 of 12 (67%) | 3 of 18 (17%) | 71 of 464 (15.3%) |
The 7 receivers finished on 13 of 61, 21%. Receivers with 10 or more games, all together, scored in 387 of 1,977 games, 20%. The receivers' hot start drifted all the way back. The running backs finished on 53%, twice the running-back rate of 27%.
The touches barely moved. The receivers drew 7.5 targets a game in weeks 1 to 6 and 7.0 after; the running backs carried 16.3 times a game, then 16.5. It's the same pull back toward normal that 8 of the last 10 found in five other sports. Two groups of 10, in one season, is a small sample.
This season's hot starts
Weeks 1 to 6 of 2026 are complete, 93 games. Week 7 had 1 of its 14 games played when these numbers were read on 25 October 2026, so it is left out. To week 6, 14 players scored in 4 or more of their games, 9 of them running backs.
2026 to week 6: 14 hot starts, 9 of them running backs
one square a week, weeks 1–6 of 2026 · filled: scored a touchdown · blank: byeShow the numbers
| Player | Position | Club | Games with a touchdown | Touchdowns | Hot start in 2025 too |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 5 of 5 | 9 | Yes |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | CIN | 4 of 4 | 4 | No |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 5 of 6 | 8 | No |
| Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | 5 of 6 | 8 | Yes |
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 5 of 6 | 8 | No |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 5 of 6 | 7 | Yes |
| James Cook III | RB | BUF | 5 of 6 | 6 | Yes |
| Kenneth Walker III | RB | KC | 4 of 5 | 8 | No |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 4 of 5 | 6 | No |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | 4 of 6 | 7 | No |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 4 of 6 | 7 | Yes |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | 4 of 6 | 6 | No |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | 4 of 6 | 5 | No |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LAR | 4 of 6 | 5 | Yes |
Jahmyr Gibbs scored in all of Detroit's games before its week 6 bye, 9 touchdowns. Mike Gesicki scored in 4 of 4. 6 of the 14 were 2025 hot starters too, and all 6 are running backs. Across the league, 45 of 322 running backs, receivers, tight ends and quarterbacks with 4 or more games had scored in half.
These are counts, not a forecast. 2025 is one season and 20 players, and it shows what happened to that group, not what this one does next. The box scores Punt stores record no snaps and no field position either, so they can't say why the running backs' touchdowns held. I'll count 2026's hot starts the same way once week 18 has been played.
Summary
- Running backs, 2025
- 69%weeks 1–653%week 7 on
- The other 10, 2025
- 72%weeks 1–622%week 7 on
- Gibbs, 2026
- 2wk 11wk 23wk 31wk 42wk 5
The working
Definitions, sources and when the numbers were read
- Seasons
- The 2025 NFL regular season, weeks 1 to 18: 272 games, 4 September 2025 to 4 January 2026, US dates. The 13 playoff games are left out. 2026: weeks 1 to 6, 93 games, 9 September to 19 October. Week 7 had 1 of 14 games played when read and is left out whole.
- A game
- A box-score row. BALLDONTLIE's NFL box scores list a player only in a game where a stat was recorded, and there are no snap counts, so a game a player took the field and recorded nothing (a receiver never targeted) has no row and looks the same as a game missed. Every rate here is of games with a recorded stat, which runs a little higher than of games played. In the strips a blank week is the team's bye; a dot is a week the team played and the player has no row.
- Scored
- The feed's anytime touchdown: a rushing, receiving, return or defensive touchdown the player scored. A touchdown pass is not one, so a quarterback counts only the touchdowns run or caught. Passing touchdowns are in the tips, marked not counted.
- Hot start
- A touchdown in 4 or more of the player's games in weeks 1 to 6, any position. All 20 in 2025 and all 14 in 2026 are running backs, receivers, tight ends or quarterbacks. Byes fall in those weeks, so some had 5 games, not 6.
- Usual rate
- Every 2025 regular-season game, at that position, of the players with 10 or more games: 86 running backs, 138 receivers, 69 tight ends, 32 quarterbacks. Games with a touchdown divided by games. Derived. Fullbacks (8 with 10 or more games) and defence are left out of every league count. Position is the one the feed lists now.
- Touches
- Carries are rushing attempts; targets are passes thrown to the player. Averaged over the group's games in each span. Derived.
- Half their games
- 2025: 27 of 325 players with 10 or more games scored in half or more; 59 never scored. 2026: 45 of 322 with 4 or more games to week 6; Jahmyr Gibbs 5 of 5 and Mike Gesicki 4 of 4 in every game.
- Read
- 25 October 2026, from Punt's database, in a read-only transaction.
- Sources
- NFL box scores: BALLDONTLIE.
- Not in this article
- Snaps, where on the field each touch came, injuries, first touchdown scorer, the playoffs, and prices. No game still to be played is predicted here.
- Sources and terms
- Every source Punt uses, with its licence, is on Credits. The terms are defined in the Glossary, and the methodology page sets out where every number comes from and the rules it follows.