Prop (proposition bet)

A bet on one player's stat line instead of the match result. "Nick Daicos over 29.5 disposals" has nothing to do with who wins the game — just whether Daicos gets to 30.

The line

The number the bookmaker sets, always ending in .5 so there's no tie. Your only question is over or under. On Project Punt, the line is always shown in gold — gold means "this is the number you're testing."

Disposals

Kicks plus handballs — every time a player legally gets rid of the ball. The headline AFL stat and the most-bet prop. Stars average 25–35 a game.

Hit rate

How often a player has gone over (or under) a specific line across real games. "70% at 29.5" means they cleared 29.5 in 70% of the games in the sample. Pure counting — no modelling.

Sample size

How many games a hit rate is counted from. 70% off 20 games is evidence; 70% off 3 games is a coin flip wearing a costume. We print it next to every number.

Implied chance

The bookmaker's price flipped into a percentage. Odds of $1.90 imply roughly a 53% chance (margin included). It's what the market believes, not the truth.

Gap

The distance between the hit rate and the implied chance. History says 70%, the price implies 53% — that is a 17-point gap. It describes what has already happened against what the price says; it is not a forecast of this game.

Conceded rank

How much of a stat a club gives up to opponents, ranked against every team in the league. "West Coast concede the most disposals in the league" is the single most useful matchup input in footy props.

Split

The same stat filtered by a condition: home vs away, wet vs dry, this venue vs everywhere else. Splits are where averages stop lying.

Marks

A clean catch from a kick that travelled 15+ metres. Play stops and you get a free kick. Think receptions.

Tackles

Legal wraps on an opponent with the ball. The defensive-effort stat — midfield grinders rack them up in the AFL; in the NRL they're the bread and butter of every forward.

Hitouts

The ruckman tapping the ball at a ball-up or boundary throw-in. Happens after every goal, so one player per team can post 30–45.

Clearances

Winning the ball out of the congestion around a stoppage. Centre-bounce midfielders own this stat.

Multi (parlay)

Several bets chained into one — every leg must win. The group-chat ritual. We research legs; we never tell you to build one.

Void / push

A bet cancelled and stake returned — usually because the player didn't take the field. In the tracker, you settle these yourself.