Home teams win in every sport. Not by much.
home wins out of every 100 games with a winner · bars start at 50, a coin flipShow the numbers
| Sport | Seasons | Home wins | Away wins | Home share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFL | 2023–26 | 475 | 344 | 58.0% |
| NRL | 2023–26 | 456 | 357 | 56.1% |
| NBA | 2025-26 | 734 | 588 | 55.5% |
| NBL | 2022-23 to 2025-26 | 320 | 270 | 54.2% |
| Premier League | 2024-25 | 155 | 132 | 54.0% |
| NFL | 2025 | 146 | 125 | 53.9% |
Why?
Sydney opened NBL27 with 6 straight home fixtures and went 4–2. Then the road: Illawarra on Thursday 22 October, Melbourne, Perth and Tasmania, 4 games in 9 days. The take writes itself: that's a head start. So I counted what home advantage is actually worth, and where it comes from.
Show the numbers
| Game | Where | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Home | Cairns | W 111–90 |
| 2 | Home | Illawarra | W 121–100 |
| 3 | Home | Brisbane | W 93–78 |
| 4 | Home | Adelaide | L 78–84 |
| 5 | Home (in Canberra) | New Zealand | L 101–102 |
| 6 | Home | Perth | W 102–81 |
| 7 | Away, Thu 22 Oct | Illawarra | Not played yet |
| 8 | Away, Sun 25 Oct | Melbourne | Not played yet |
| 9 | Away, Wed 28 Oct | Perth | Not played yet |
| 10 | Away, Fri 30 Oct | Tasmania | Not played yet |
A quarter of a win
Figure 1 is the part nobody argues with. Pick the home team in every game with a winner and you'd be right 58 times in 100 in the AFL, 56 in the NRL and the NBA, and 54 in the NBL, the Premier League and the NFL. The WNBA's 2026 season: 54.1%. Real everywhere, and small everywhere.
For Sydney, an average NBL team wins 54.2% at home and 45.8% away. A normal start is 3 home and 3 away, so Sydney had 3 extra:
54.2%wins at home45.8%wins away8.4per 100 games
3extra home games0.084wins each0.25of a win
About a quarter of a win, and the draw pays it back: 17 home games and 16 away across the season, all counted in the NBL27 draw.
Blame the refs?
The first suspect is the whistle. In the NBA it leans home, a little: 2.5% more free throws for the home side. In the NBL it doesn't move at all: 21.39 free throws a game at home, 21.46 away.
Show the numbers
| Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|
| NBA free throws | 23.85 | 23.27 |
| NBA fouls called | 19.83 | 20.20 |
| NBL free throws | 21.39 | 21.46 |
| NBL fouls called | 20.57 | 20.72 |
Fouls called say the same: 20.57 at home, 20.72 away. Level in every one of the 4 seasons. The NBL whistle doesn't care where the game is.
Feeding off the crowd?
Next suspect: the role players who supposedly lift in front of their own fans. NBL role players do shoot a touch better at home, and that's about it:
NBL role players at home and away: almost the same player
role players, 2022-23 to 2025-26 · bars from zeroShow the numbers
| Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|
| Field goal % | 45.7% | 45.0% |
| Three-point % | 34.3% | 33.3% |
| Turnover % | 12.8 | 13.0 |
| Assists per 36 minutes | 2.89 | 2.87 |
0.7%better at home6.3shots a game0.044extra makes a game
1extra make0.044a game23games
One extra bucket every 23 games. The stars don't even get that: 46.2% at home, 46.4% away. NBA role players moved the same tiny amount, 47.1% to 46.4%. The biggest home bump anywhere in the NBL box score is offensive rebounds: home teams grab 28.1% of their own misses, away teams 26.8%.
Then the scorers. Of the 44 NBL players averaging 10 or more points with 20 or more games at home and away, exactly score more at home and 22 score more on the road.
44 NBL scorers: 22 better at home, 22 better away
players averaging 10+ points, 20+ games at home and 20+ away · one dot eachShow the numbers
| Players | |
|---|---|
| Score more at home | 22 |
| Score more away | 22 |
Kendric Davis is on the road side: 24.2 points a game at home, away since 2022-23, across Adelaide and Sydney. At Sydney alone it's dead level, 24.4 and 24.4.
Lock the fans out
So it's not the whistle and it's barely the shooting. COVID then ran the test nobody else could. In 2020-21 the Premier League played behind closed doors, and home teams won 37.9% of games to the away teams' 40.3%. It was the first season ever with more away wins than home wins. With fans, the Premier League era averages 45.8% home wins.
Show the numbers
| Share of games | |
|---|---|
| Home wins, with fans (era average) | 45.8% |
| Home wins, 2020-21, no fans | 37.9% |
| Away wins, 2020-21, no fans | 40.3% |
Take the crowd away and the edge didn't just shrink. It flipped. A study in Significance magazine landed in the same spot: the Premier League's home advantage is the fans.
Two real home courts
Across a whole league it's 54%. Club by club, it's a different story.
Every NBL club at home and away: two real home courts
win rate, 2022-23 to 2025-26 regular seasons · sorted by the gapShow the numbers
| Club | Home | Away | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| SE Melbourne Phoenix | 39/58 (67.2%) | 24/60 (40.0%) | +27.2 |
| Adelaide 36ers | 38/60 (63.3%) | 23/58 (39.7%) | +23.7 |
| Perth Wildcats | 39/60 (65.0%) | 32/58 (55.2%) | +9.8 |
| Illawarra Hawks | 27/58 (46.6%) | 23/60 (38.3%) | +8.2 |
| Melbourne United | 39/60 (65.0%) | 35/58 (60.3%) | +4.7 |
| Tasmania JackJumpers | 30/58 (51.7%) | 29/60 (48.3%) | +3.4 |
| NZ Breakers | 28/59 (47.5%) | 26/59 (44.1%) | +3.4 |
| Sydney Kings | 37/59 (62.7%) | 35/59 (59.3%) | +3.4 |
| Brisbane Bullets | 20/58 (34.5%) | 19/60 (31.7%) | +2.8 |
| Cairns Taipans | 23/60 (38.3%) | 24/58 (41.4%) | −3.0 |
Two NBL clubs have a real home court: the Phoenix win 67% at home and 40% away, Adelaide 63% and 40%. Everyone else is within 10 points. Sydney's gap is 3: 63% at home, 59% away, and that 59% is the second-best road record in the league behind Melbourne's 60%. Cairns win more on the road (41%) than at home (38%).
The AFL tops Figure 1 even though plenty of clubs share a ground, so travel is a possible factor too. Interstate trips are long, and no number here can split the trip from the crowd.
So what is it?
Home advantage is real in every sport, and it's small. In the NBL it isn't the building, and it isn't the refs. It's the people in it.
What these numbers can't do is split the crowd from the travel.
Summary
- Home wins
- 58.0%AFL56.1%NRL55.5%NBA54.2%NBL
- NBL free throws
- 21.39home21.46away
- No fans, Premier League 2020-21
- 37.9%home wins40.3%away wins
The working
Definitions, sources and when the numbers were read
- Home share
- Home wins out of every game with a winner: draws (Premier League) and ties (NFL) left out. Regular seasons only. AFL and NRL 2023 to 2026; NBA 2025-26, the one NBA season Punt stores; NBL 2022-23 to 2025-26, the four seasons since full crowds came back (2020-21 and 2021-22 left out); WNBA 2026.
- NBL by season
- 2022-23: 74 home wins of 140 (52.9%); 2023-24: 83 home wins of 140 (59.3%); 2024-25: 80 home wins of 145 (55.2%); 2025-26: 83 home wins of 165 (50.3%).
- A quarter of a win
- Derived: the NBL's home win rate (54.2%) minus its away win rate (45.8%), times the 3 extra home games a 6-game home start gives over a 3–3 split. An average team, not Sydney's own rate.
- Refs
- Free throws attempted and personal fouls called, per team per game, home against away.
- Role players and stars
- Stars are each team's top 2 scorers in a season; role players are everyone else who averaged 10+ minutes over 10+ games. The extra bucket is derived: 0.7 percentage points times 6.3 shots a game. Offensive rebound rate: offensive rebounds out of the team's own missed shots.
- Scorers
- NBL players averaging 10+ points with 20+ games at home and 20+ away, 2022-23 to 22 October 2026, split by whether the home or the away average is higher. Kendric Davis: 24.2 at home, 25.5 away across Adelaide and Sydney; 24.4 and 24.4 at Sydney alone.
- Clubs
- Every NBL club's regular-season home and away wins, 2022-23 to 2025-26, out of games with a winner.
- Read
- 22 October 2026, from Punt's database.
- Sources
- Premier League 2024-25: FISO. The 2020-21 season with no fans: The Analyst and the Premier League. Why: Significance. NBL results: nbl.com.au.
- Not in this article
- Travel distance, rest days, altitude, crowd sizes, and any game still to be played. No result is predicted here.
- Sources and terms
- Every source Punt uses, with its licence, is on Credits. The terms are defined in the Glossary, and the methodology page sets out where every number comes from and the rules it follows.