Half the seasons landed within two points of the first five
players · points a game after the first five, against the first five · 2020-21 to 2025-26Show the numbers
| After the first five | Points a game | Player-seasons |
|---|---|---|
| Lower | 5+ | 25 |
| Lower | 4–5 | 24 |
| Lower | 3–4 | 36 |
| Lower | 2–3 | 44 |
| Lower | 1–2 | 71 |
| Lower | 0–1 | 93 |
| Higher | 0–1 | 90 |
| Higher | 1–2 | 65 |
| Higher | 2–3 | 73 |
| Higher | 3–4 | 51 |
| Higher | 4–5 | 26 |
| Higher | 5+ | 43 |
The short version
- After five games, the rest of the season's scoring average landed within two points of the first five for 319 of 641 players, and within four for 523. Six NBL seasons, 2020-21 to 2025-26, players with 15 or more games.
- The hottest starts cooled. 19 of the 23 players who averaged 20 or more in their first five scored less after them. 22.2 in the first five, 20.4 after.
- The quietest starts climbed. 159 of the 211 who started under 5 a game scored more after. 2.7 in the first five, 4.3 after.
Why this was worth a look
NBL27 began on 19 September, and by mid-October most players had five games behind them. I wanted to know how much five games had meant in the six seasons before it.
How it was counted
For every player in every regular season from 2020-21 to 2025-26, the first fiveThe first five games of the season in which the player was on the court, in date order. Games the player missed are not counted, so a first five can run past round five. against every game after them. Only players with at least 15 games count, so every comparison has at least 10 games on the other side. A player who changed clubs mid-season is one player. Points only, the NBL's most-bet player market; rebounds and assists get a line at the end.
Half landed within two points
The middle of the chart is where most seasons sat. 319 of 641 player-seasons, 49.8%, finished within two points a game of their first five, and 523, 81.6%, within four. 68 moved by more than five points either way.
Slightly more went up than down: 346 scored more after the first five, 293 scored less. Five games is a small sample, the same point the sample-size article makes about any hit rate, but in the NBL it was usually close.
The hotter the start, the more it cooled
Splitting the players by how they started shows which way the rest of the season moved.
Hot starts came down, quiet starts came up
points a game after the first five, minus the first five · beside each: players, first five → afterShow the numbers
| First five average | Players | First five | After | Change | Scored less after | Scored more after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5 | 211 | 2.7 | 4.3 | +1.6 | 52 | 159 |
| 5 to 10 | 189 | 7.3 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 93 | 95 |
| 10 to 15 | 142 | 12.3 | 12.0 | −0.3 | 77 | 64 |
| 15 to 20 | 76 | 17.1 | 16.1 | −1.1 | 52 | 24 |
| 20 or more | 23 | 22.2 | 20.4 | −1.8 | 19 | 4 |
The 23 players who averaged 20 or more in their first five dropped by 1.8 points a game after them, and 19 of the 23 scored less. The 76 who started between 15 and 20 dropped by 1.1, 52 of them lower. At the other end, the 211 who started under 5 went up by 1.6, 159 of them higher. In the middle, players who started between 5 and 15 barely moved as a group.
A hot start was usually real, just a little hotter than the season that followed. Of the 23 who started on 20 or more, the group still scored 20.4 a game after it.
When it moved, the minutes moved
Of the 68 seasons that finished more than five points away from the first five, 45 had minutes move by three or more in the same direction.
- big moves where the minutes moved too
- 45 of 68
- 3+ minutes, same way
- Kouat Noi, 2024-25
- 5.4 → 17.0
- 12 → 23 minutes
- Kyle Adnam, 2022-23
- 16.2 → 7.0
- 31 → 18 minutes
Kouat Noi is the biggest rise: 5.4 points a game in the first five of 2024-25 for Sydney Kings, on 12 minutes, and 17.0 after them, on 23. Kyle Adnam is the biggest fall: 16.2 in the first five of 2022-23 for South East Melbourne Phoenix, on 31 minutes, and 7.0 after, on 18.
Rebounds and assists held even closer: the rest of the season landed within one rebound a game for 389 of 641, and within one assist for 516.
What this doesn't tell you
These are six seasons of what happened, not a forecast for NBL27. A new coach, an injury or an import arriving mid-season can move a player's minutes, and this count cannot see those reasons, only the minutes. I want to run the same count on NBL27 once every club has played 15 games.
The working
- Seasons
- Six complete NBL regular seasons, 2020-21 (162 games), 2021-22 (140 games), 2022-23 (139 games), 2023-24 (140 games), 2024-25 (145 games), 2025-26 (165 games). 2022-23 has 1 game with no box score in the feed, left out. Finals are left out: from 2022-23 the feed names them; in 2020-21 and 2021-22 they carry round numbers, so a regular-season game is one dated on or before the last game of the final round.
- A game
- A box-score row with minutes recorded and above zero.
- First five and after
- A player's first five such games of the season in date order, and every such game after them. Only player-seasons with 15+ games: 641 of them, by 286 players. One person across clubs.
- Within two points
- The average after the first five is no more than 2.0 points a game above or below the first-five average. Derived.
- Minutes moved
- Average minutes after the first five differ from the first five by three or more, in the same direction as the points.
- Club
- The club of the player's last game that season.
- Read
- 25 September 2026, from Punt's database.
- Sources
- The competition's own record is at nbl.com.au.
- Not in this article
- NBL27 itself, finals, any stat but points, rebounds and assists, and prices.
- Sources and terms
- Every source Punt uses, with its licence, is on Credits. The terms are defined in the Glossary, and the methodology page sets out where every number comes from and the rules it follows.