Show the numbers
| Ahead | Games with a leader | Leader won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| After the first quarter | 905 | 582 | 64.3% |
| At half-time | 927 | 680 | 73.4% |
| At both breaks | 660 | 497 | 75.3% |
Why?
A quarter-time lead gets talked about as if it settles something. I wanted to know how often it actually held, so I counted every NBL game Punt has the quarter scores for.
Punt stores the first- and second-quarter scores of every NBL game from 2020-21 to the 2025-26 championship: 964 games, none of them drawn. A leadThe gap in points between the two clubs at a break: first-quarter scores for quarter-time, first and second quarters added together for half-time. Derived from the stored quarter scores; no feed publishes it. Games level at the break are left out. here is how far one club was ahead of the other at a break. Third- and fourth-quarter scores are not stored, so the counting stops at half-time.
Ahead, but not safe
Of the 905 games with a team ahead after the first quarter, that team won 582, or 64.3%. At half-time the share was higher: 680 of 927, or 73.4%. Clubs ahead at both breaks won 497 of 660, or 75.3%.
Home clubs held a quarter-time lead more often than away clubs:
| Ahead after Q1 | Games | Won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 469 | 320 | 68.2% |
| Away | 436 | 262 | 60.1% |
The rate climbs with the size of the lead. Teams one or two points up after the first quarter won 95 of 196, or 48.5%: fewer than half. Teams 15 or more up won 49 of 54, a small group across six seasons.
Ahead after the first quarter: how often the leader won, by lead
points ahead · games in greyShow the numbers
| Lead after Q1 | Games | Leader won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1–2 points | 196 | 95 | 48.5% |
| 3–4 points | 163 | 91 | 55.8% |
| 5–6 points | 173 | 118 | 68.2% |
| 7–9 points | 156 | 110 | 70.5% |
| 10–14 points | 163 | 119 | 73% |
| 15+ points | 54 | 49 | 90.7% |
At half-time the climb is steeper. A lead of one or two points was followed by a win in 85 of 163 games (52.1%). Fifteen or more, 157 of 168 (93.5%).
Show the numbers
| Lead at half-time | Games | Leader won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1–2 points | 163 | 85 | 52.1% |
| 3–4 points | 145 | 88 | 60.7% |
| 5–6 points | 127 | 79 | 62.2% |
| 7–9 points | 152 | 121 | 79.6% |
| 10–14 points | 172 | 150 | 87.2% |
| 15+ points | 168 | 157 | 93.5% |
- won from 1–2 points up after the first quarter
- 48.5%
- 95 of 196
- won from 15+ points up after the first quarter
- 90.7%
- 49 of 54
- won from 15+ points up at half-time
- 93.5%
- 157 of 168
Less safe in finals?
Finals read differently, on far fewer games. Of 72 finals, 67 had a team ahead after the first quarter. That team won 30 of them, 44.8%, against 65.9% in the regular season. At half-time, finals leaders won 53.7%, against 74.9% in the regular season. Teams 10 or more up after the first quarter of a final won 5 of 12.
Show the numbers
| Games | Break | Games with a leader | Leader won | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular season | quarter-time | 838 | 552 | 65.9% |
| Finals | quarter-time | 67 | 30 | 44.8% |
| Regular season | half-time | 860 | 644 | 74.9% |
| Finals | half-time | 67 | 36 | 53.7% |
Sixty-seven games is a small sample: three or four results the other way would move the rate by around five points. Finals are also not played at neutral venues. The higher seed hosts, and home clubs won 50 of the 72 finals (69.4%). Away clubs that led a final after the first quarter won 7 of 30. Home clubs that led won 23 of 37.
A single season is a small sample too. Season by season, the quarter-time rate has moved from 59.0% in 2020-21 to 70.4% in 2025-26. Each season had between 142 and 169 games with a leader, which is too few to call the movement between them a trend.
Ahead after the first quarter, by season
how often the leader won · regular season and finals64.3%, all six
Show the numbers
| Season | Games | Q1 leader games | Q1 leader won | Q1 rate | Half-time leader games | Half-time leader won | Half-time rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | 171 | 156 | 92 | 59% | 164 | 117 | 71.3% |
| 2021-22 | 148 | 142 | 88 | 62% | 140 | 100 | 71.4% |
| 2022-23 | 154 | 150 | 94 | 62.7% | 145 | 112 | 77.2% |
| 2023-24 | 154 | 142 | 95 | 66.9% | 148 | 112 | 75.7% |
| 2024-25 | 159 | 146 | 94 | 64.4% | 155 | 107 | 69% |
| 2025-26 | 178 | 169 | 119 | 70.4% | 175 | 132 | 75.4% |
Twenty-one points, gone
The biggest half-time lead lost in the six seasons was 21 points. The biggest quarter-time lead lost was 17, which happened twice. Four of those games:
Perth Wildcats97
Adelaide 36ers88
South East Melbourne Phoenix85
Adelaide 36ers75
Adelaide 36ers96
South East Melbourne Phoenix93
Sydney Kings106
Cairns Taipans92
One was a final: South East Melbourne Phoenix were 19 points behind Adelaide at half-time of the 2024-25 Elimination final and won by 10.
What about the second half?
Punt stores the first two quarters only, so this count stops at half-time. It cannot say when in the second half a lead slipped, or how safe a lead was at three-quarter-time. Every number on this page counts games already played, and none of it says how a game still to come will go. If the feed ever carries the third- and fourth-quarter scores, I would run the same count at three-quarter-time.
Summary
- Leader won
- 64.3%ahead at quarter-time, 582 of 90573.4%ahead at half-time, 680 of 927
- By lead after Q1
- 48.5%1–2 points up, 95 of 19690.7%15+ up, 49 of 54
- Finals, quarter-time
- 44.8%30 of 67 finals65.9%regular season
The working
Definitions, sources and when the numbers were read
- Games
- 964 NBL games, 2020-21 to 2025-26, regular season and finals. The data stores a season under the year it ends. No game was drawn; overtime is in the final score.
- Lead
- Derived: home score minus away score after the first quarter, and after the first and second quarters added together. Games level at the break are left out: 59 at quarter-time, 37 at half-time.
- Lead sizes
- Grouped as 1–2, 3–4, 5–6, 7–9, 10–14, and 15 or more points. Every rate carries its game count.
- Finals
- Named in the data from 2022-23. The 2020-21 and 2021-22 finals are stored as Rounds 1 and 2 and were split out by date: from 10 June 2021 (9 games) and from 28 April 2022 (8 games). Home and away as the data labels them.
- Not stored
- Third- and fourth-quarter scores, so nothing here covers the second half.
- Read
- 15 September 2026, from Punt's database. Completed games only.
- Not in this article
- How any game still to be played will go.
- Sources and terms
- Every source Punt uses, with its licence, is on Credits. The terms are defined in the Glossary, and the methodology page sets out where every number comes from and the rules it follows.