NBLThe season, counted24 September 20263 min read

Up at quarter-time: what six NBL seasons say about early leads

How often the NBL team ahead after the first quarter, or at half-time, went on to win: 964 games from 2020-21 to 2025-26, by size of lead and in finals.

By AdamNumbers to the 2025-26 championship

Figure 1

How often the team ahead at the break won

NBL · 964 games · 2020-21 to 2025-26

50%: half of the games

After the first quarter 582 of 90564.3%

At half-time 680 of 92773.4%

At both breaks 497 of 66075.3%

A lead is the gap between the clubs' stored quarter scores at the break. Games level at the break are left out: 59 at quarter-time, 37 at half-time. Regular season and finals. Read from Punt's database on 15 September 2026.

Show the numbers

Ahead	Games with a leader	Leader won	Rate
After the first quarter	905	582	64.3%
At half-time	927	680	73.4%
At both breaks	660	497	75.3%

The short version

The team ahead after the first quarter won 582 of 905 games: 64.3%. NBL, 2020-21 to 2025-26. The 59 games level at quarter-time are left out.
The team ahead at half-time won 680 of 927: 73.4%. The 37 games level at half-time are left out.
Teams one or two points up after the first quarter won 95 of 196, fewer than half. Fifteen or more up: 49 of 54.
In finals, the quarter-time leader won 30 of 67. A small sample, and the higher seed hosts.

What counts as a lead

Punt stores the first- and second-quarter scores of every NBL game from 2020-21 to the 2025-26 championship: 964 games, none of them drawn. A lead here is how far one club was ahead of the other at a break. Third- and fourth-quarter scores are not stored, so the counting stops at half-time.

Quarter-time and half-time

Of the 905 games with a team ahead after the first quarter, that team won 582, or 64.3%. At half-time the share was higher: 680 of 927, or 73.4%. Clubs ahead at both breaks won 497 of 660, or 75.3%.

Home clubs ahead after the first quarter won 320 of 469 (68.2%). Away clubs ahead won 262 of 436 (60.1%).

Every NBL player's game logEach player's record in Punt, game by game, for every NBL club.Open NBL

By the size of the lead

The rate climbs with the size of the lead. Teams one or two points up after the first quarter won 95 of 196, or 48.5%: fewer than half. Seven to nine points up, 110 of 156 (70.5%). Fifteen or more up, 49 of 54 (90.7%), and that group is only 54 games across six seasons.

Figure 2

Ahead after the first quarter: how often the leader won, by lead

points ahead · games in grey

50%: half of the games

1–2 points 95 of 19648.5%

3–4 points 91 of 16355.8%

5–6 points 118 of 17368.2%

7–9 points 110 of 15670.5%

10–14 points 119 of 16373.0%

15+ points 49 of 5490.7%

Each row is the games in which one club led by that many points after the first quarter, and how many of them it won. Regular season and finals, 2020-21 to 2025-26. Read from Punt's database on 15 September 2026.

Show the numbers

Lead after Q1	Games	Leader won	Rate
1–2 points	196	95	48.5%
3–4 points	163	91	55.8%
5–6 points	173	118	68.2%
7–9 points	156	110	70.5%
10–14 points	163	119	73%
15+ points	54	49	90.7%

At half-time the climb is steeper. A one- or two-point lead was followed by a win in 85 of 163 games (52.1%). Ten to 14 points, 150 of 172 (87.2%). Fifteen or more, 157 of 168 (93.5%).

Figure 3

Ahead at half-time: how often the leader won, by lead

points ahead · games in grey

50%: half of the games

1–2 points 85 of 16352.1%

3–4 points 88 of 14560.7%

5–6 points 79 of 12762.2%

7–9 points 121 of 15279.6%

10–14 points 150 of 17287.2%

15+ points 157 of 16893.5%

Each row is the games in which one club led by that many points at half-time, first and second quarters added together. Regular season and finals, 2020-21 to 2025-26. Read from Punt's database on 15 September 2026.

Show the numbers

Lead at half-time	Games	Leader won	Rate
1–2 points	163	85	52.1%
3–4 points	145	88	60.7%
5–6 points	127	79	62.2%
7–9 points	152	121	79.6%
10–14 points	172	150	87.2%
15+ points	168	157	93.5%

won from 1–2 points up after the first quarter: 48.5%; 95 of 196
won from 15+ points up after the first quarter: 90.7%; 49 of 54
won from 15+ points up at half-time: 93.5%; 157 of 168

Finals

Finals read differently, on far fewer games. Of 72 finals, 67 had a team ahead after the first quarter, and that team won 30 (44.8%). In the regular season it was 552 of 838 (65.9%). At half-time, finals leaders won 36 of 67 (53.7%), against 644 of 860 (74.9%) in the regular season. Teams 10 or more up after the first quarter of a final won 5 of 12.

Figure 4

Regular season against finals

how often the leader won · games in grey

50%: half of the games

Regular season, quarter-time 552 of 83865.9%

Finals, quarter-time 30 of 6744.8%

Regular season, half-time 644 of 86074.9%

Finals, half-time 36 of 6753.7%

finalsregular season

Finals are 72 games over six seasons, 67 of them with a leader at each break: a small sample. The higher seed hosts finals. The 2020-21 and 2021-22 finals were split out by date. Read from Punt's database on 15 September 2026.

Show the numbers

Games	Break	Games with a leader	Leader won	Rate
Regular season	quarter-time	838	552	65.9%
Finals	quarter-time	67	30	44.8%
Regular season	half-time	860	644	74.9%
Finals	half-time	67	36	53.7%

Sixty-seven games is a small sample: three or four results the other way would move the rate by around five points. Finals are also not played at neutral venues. The higher seed hosts, and home clubs won 50 of the 72 finals (69.4%). Away clubs that led a final after the first quarter won 7 of 30; home clubs that led won 23 of 37.

Season by season

The quarter-time rate has run from 59.0% in 2020-21, on 156 games with a leader, to 70.4% in 2025-26, on 169. Each season had between 142 and 169 such games, which is too few to call the movement between them a trend.

Figure 5

Ahead after the first quarter, by season

how often the leader won · regular season and finals

64.3%, all six

A season is named for the years it spans; the data stores it under the year it ends. The line is all six seasons together. Read from Punt's database on 15 September 2026.

Show the numbers

Season	Games	Q1 leader games	Q1 leader won	Q1 rate	Half-time leader games	Half-time leader won	Half-time rate
2020-21	171	156	92	59%	164	117	71.3%
2021-22	148	142	88	62%	140	100	71.4%
2022-23	154	150	94	62.7%	145	112	77.2%
2023-24	154	142	95	66.9%	148	112	75.7%
2024-25	159	146	94	64.4%	155	107	69%
2025-26	178	169	119	70.4%	175	132	75.4%

Leads that were lost

The biggest half-time lead lost in the six seasons was 21 points, and the biggest quarter-time lead lost was 17, which happened twice. Four of those games:

14 March 2021 · Round 9 · Adelaide 36ers led 60–39 at half-time

Perth Wildcats97

Adelaide 36ers88

16 February 2025 · Elimination final · Adelaide 36ers led 45–26 at half-time

South East Melbourne Phoenix85

Adelaide 36ers75

17 November 2023 · Round 8 · South East Melbourne Phoenix led 35–18 after the first quarter and 53–35 at half-time

Adelaide 36ers96

South East Melbourne Phoenix93

1 February 2026 · Round 19 · Cairns Taipans led 34–17 after the first quarter

Sydney Kings106

Cairns Taipans92

One was a final: South East Melbourne Phoenix were 19 points behind Adelaide at half-time of the 2024-25 Elimination final and won by 10.

Every number on this page counts games already played. None of it says how a game still to come will go.

The working

Games: 964 NBL games, 2020-21 to 2025-26, regular season and finals. The data stores a season under the year it ends. No game was drawn; overtime is in the final score.
Lead: Derived: home score minus away score after the first quarter, and after the first and second quarters added together. Games level at the break are left out: 59 at quarter-time, 37 at half-time.
Lead sizes: Grouped as 1–2, 3–4, 5–6, 7–9, 10–14, and 15 or more points. Every rate carries its game count.
Finals: Named in the data from 2022-23. The 2020-21 and 2021-22 finals are stored as Rounds 1 and 2 and were split out by date: from 10 June 2021 (9 games) and from 28 April 2022 (8 games). Home and away as the data labels them.
Not stored: Third- and fourth-quarter scores, so nothing here covers the second half.
Read: 15 September 2026, from Punt's database. Completed games only.
Not in this article: How any game still to be played will go.

NBL in PuntEvery player, every gameOpen

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Ahead

Games with a leader

Leader won

Rate

After the first quarter

905

582

64.3%

At half-time

927

680

73.4%

At both breaks

660

497

75.3%

The short version

The team ahead after the first quarter won 582 of 905 games: 64.3%. NBL, 2020-21 to 2025-26. The 59 games level at quarter-time are left out.

The team ahead at half-time won 680 of 927: 73.4%. The 37 games level at half-time are left out.

Teams one or two points up after the first quarter won 95 of 196, fewer than half. Fifteen or more up: 49 of 54.

In finals, the quarter-time leader won 30 of 67. A small sample, and the higher seed hosts.

What counts as a lead

Quarter-time and half-time

Home clubs ahead after the first quarter won 320 of 469 (68.2%). Away clubs ahead won 262 of 436 (60.1%).

Lead after Q1

Games

Leader won

Rate

1–2 points

196

48.5%

3–4 points

163

55.8%

5–6 points

173

118

68.2%

7–9 points

156

110

70.5%

10–14 points

163

119

73%

15+ points

90.7%

Lead at half-time

Games

Leader won

Rate

1–2 points

163

52.1%

3–4 points

145

60.7%

5–6 points

127

62.2%

7–9 points

152

121

79.6%

10–14 points

172

150

87.2%

15+ points

168

157

93.5%

Finals

Games

Break

Games with a leader

Leader won

Rate

Regular season

quarter-time

838

552

65.9%

Finals

quarter-time

44.8%

Regular season

half-time

860

644

74.9%

Finals

half-time

53.7%

Season

Games

Q1 leader games

Q1 leader won

Q1 rate

Half-time leader games

Half-time leader won

Half-time rate

2020-21

171

156

59%

164

117

71.3%

2021-22

148

142

62%

140

100

71.4%

2022-23

154

150

62.7%

145

112

77.2%

2023-24

154

142

66.9%

148

112

75.7%

2024-25

159

146

64.4%

155

107

69%

2025-26

178

169

119

70.4%

175

132

75.4%

The working

Games

964 NBL games, 2020-21 to 2025-26, regular season and finals. The data stores a season under the year it ends. No game was drawn; overtime is in the final score.

Lead

Derived: home score minus away score after the first quarter, and after the first and second quarters added together. Games level at the break are left out: 59 at quarter-time, 37 at half-time.

Lead sizes

Grouped as 1–2, 3–4, 5–6, 7–9, 10–14, and 15 or more points. Every rate carries its game count.

Finals

Named in the data from 2022-23. The 2020-21 and 2021-22 finals are stored as Rounds 1 and 2 and were split out by date: from 10 June 2021 (9 games) and from 28 April 2022 (8 games). Home and away as the data labels them.

Not stored

Third- and fourth-quarter scores, so nothing here covers the second half.

Read

15 September 2026, from Punt's database. Completed games only.

Not in this article

How any game still to be played will go.