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The notebook

The season, counted.

What happened this season, drawn from every game we hold, and how we count it. No picks, ever.

Check out our NBL assist web→
AFL

Scoring shots a game

364044482019202020212022202320242025202630.2 ↓short quarters40.544.8

Goals per scoring shot

50%54%58%62%66%2019202020212022202320242025202657.4%57.7%59.1%
The season, counted3 min readAFL scoring jumped 9.6 points a game in 2026. The kicking didn't get straighter.AFL scoring rose 9.6 points a game in 2026, but goals per scoring shot fell to 57.7%. The extra shots were worth more than the whole rise.Read the article →
AFL

Scoring shots a game

364044482019202020212022202320242025202630.2 ↓short quarters40.544.8

Goals per scoring shot

50%54%58%62%66%2019202020212022202320242025202657.4%57.7%59.1%
The season, counted3 min readAFL scoring jumped 9.6 points a game in 2026. The kicking didn't get straighter.AFL scoring rose 9.6 points a game in 2026, but goals per scoring shot fell to 57.7%. The extra shots were worth more than the whole rise.
NBA2
Research method4 min readBlowouts cost stars minutes either way. Only losing costs them points.Every 2025-26 NBA game decided by 20 or more: regulars lost 3.8 minutes either way, but 4.3 points a game in the losses and 0.4 in the wins.
NBA015
Research method3 min readFive NBA games in: the hot starts cool, and the top ten changesEvery NBA player's first five games of 2025-26 against the rest of the season: 431 players, the 18 hottest starts, and a top ten that turned over.
NFL0The season, counted3 min readHot touchdown starts: the running backs kept scoring, the receivers didn't20 NFL players scored a touchdown in 4 or more of their week 1–6 games in 2025. After week 6, the running backs scored in 52 of 99 games; the rest, 20 of 89.NRL4
0510152025Bradman Best (NEW)17.2
The season, counted4 min read4 tries all year, yet only 2 NRL players did more per touch than Bradman BestBradman Best scored 4 tries in 2026 and set up 15. Count tries, line breaks and the ones set up, and only 2 of 314 NRL players did more per touch.
NBL4
010202025-26NBL27
The season, counted2 min readDash Daniels reached 10 points once in 33 games last season. Now it's 7 in 9.Dash Daniels scored 4.2 points a game for Melbourne United in 2025-26 and 13.2 for the Phoenix in NBL27, the 3rd-biggest rise of 63 NBL players.
NBL3

Over 26.5: 4/8 games · Without PJC: 3/3 games

010203040
↕ 26.5
The season, counted2 min readSam Mennenga's points doubled without PJC. The wins didn't.Without Parker Jackson-Cartwright, Sam Mennenga went from 16.6 points a game to 34.3. The Breakers won 1 of those 3 games.
NRL
0102030405060704+ fewer169/2851–3 fewer410/739Level173/3461–3 more329/7394+ more116/28540.7
The season, counted3 min readDiscipline is rugby league's most overrated excuseGive away 4+ more penalties than the other team and NRL sides still win 41%. In close games it's 49%. Errors cost more. Every club, 2021–26.
NBL
AFL2023–2658.0%
NRL2023–2656.1%
NBA2025-2655.5%
NBL2022–2654.2%
Premier League2024-2554.0%
NFL202553.9%

50%52%54%56%58%60%

The season, counted3 min readHome advantage is just the fansHome teams win 54.2% to 58.0% of games in every sport. In the NBL the refs and shooting barely move. Then fans were locked out, and it flipped.
NBA15

Over 27.5: 14/51 games · Without LeBron: 7/16 games

01020304050
↕ 27.5
The season, counted2 min readLeBron leaving helps Austin Reaves more than LukaIn 16 games without LeBron James last season, Austin Reaves went from 20.9 points a game to 28.4. Luka went from 33.0 to 35.1.
NRL
05010015020020304050607080run metres a game ↑minutes a game →
The season, counted2 min readMinute for minute, NRL outside backs out-run the forwards. Props out-run every jumperEvery NRL game to Finals Week 1, by the jumper worn: outside backs made 1.89 run metres a minute, starting forwards 1.75, and props 2.33, the most of any.
NRL

Warriors 2026

01234

3.55sslowest ruck of 17

Points conceded a game
17.5
Won
18 of 26

0.02sapart

Dragons 2026

01234

3.53s4th-slowest ruck of 17

Points conceded a game
29.9
Won
5 of 24
The season, counted2 min readLine speed is the most overrated thing in rugby leagueWe timed the ruck against every NRL defence since 2021. Slowing it barely moved points conceded. Metres given up did: 18.0 a game v 27.1.
NBL40
01020252024-252025-26252026-2725
The season, counted2 min readPerth already replaced Bryce CottonElijah Pepper went from 7.1 points a game beside Bryce Cotton to 23.8. Every Pepper game since 2024, Perth with and without Cotton, and Sydney.
NBL
0204060801005+less254–5less243–4less362–3less441–2less710–1less93the first five0–1more901–2more652–3more733–4more514–5more265+more43
Research method3 min readFive NBL games in: most scoring averages hold, and the hot starts cool641 NBL player-seasons since 2020-21: how close the first five games came to the rest of the season, and what happened to the hottest starts.
NBL
2020-211
2021-221
2022-234
2023-241
2024-2511
2025-267
2026-27so far2
The season, counted3 min readHas basketball been solved?NBL teams score 5.8 more points a game than in 2020-21. We counted every possession and every shot: the game got faster, and the shots stayed the same.
NBA
Back-to-back+0.38
One day−0.03
Two days−0.18
Three or more−0.14
Research method2 min readNBA back-to-backs: the scoring held up, and the stars sat outEvery NBA player with 40 or more games in 2025-26, on the second night of a back-to-back against every other night: the points, the minutes, and who sat out.
NRL7
R13'21R14'21R18'21R13'22R18'22R21'22R22'22R23'22R25'22R16'23R17'23R13'24R17'24R4'25R12'25R16'25R20'25R26'25R13'26R16'26R18'26
The season, counted3 min readPenrith, now without Nathan Cleary. Will their true colours be shown?All 162 Penrith games since 2021, with and without Nathan Cleary. Without Cleary, 30-15. Without Cleary and Jarome Luai, 10-11.
NRL5
The season, counted2 min readOf 135 NRL winger seasons since 2021, two were top five for tries, tackle breaks and offloadsEvery NRL winger season since 2021 by top-five tries, tackle breaks and offloads: only Brian To'o in 2021 and Mark Nawaqanitawase in 2025 made all three.
NBL11
Taipans36.0
Breakers32.7
Phoenix30.3
Wildcats26.7
Bullets26.0
Hawks24.8
United24.0
Kings19.1
JackJumpers18.7
The season, counted2 min readBryce Cotton scored 19.1 a game against Sydney, 8.8 fewer than against the rest of the NBLBryce Cotton's NBL26 points against every team, all 9 games against Sydney, where the shots stopped falling, and where Sydney let Cotton shoot from.
NBL3
010203040median 19.9%Cole Anthony39.2
The season, counted3 min readCole Anthony uses 39.2% of Melbourne United's plays, the most in the NBLCole Anthony's share of United's plays against all 68 NBL27 regulars, game by game, and how it moved in the wins and the losses.
NBL
0102030median 10.2Bryce Cotton25.9
The season, counted3 min readFifteen points a game sounds ordinary. It was 17th best in the NBL.Every qualifying NBL scorer of 2025-26, sorted, so you can see what an average is worth: five beat 20 a game, and half the league sat under 10.2.
NBL
035701026236745154963273181096102112121136141
The season, counted3 min readNot one NBL club plays two days in a row this seasonThe NBL27 fixture counted: 320 turnarounds and not one of them is a single day, plus the only empty week of the season and five straight nights at one arena.
AFL
020406080ORR4R8R12R16R20R24Charlie Curnow 69Logan Morris 63Ben King 60
The season, counted3 min readThe Coleman race, goal by goalBen King led the AFL goalkicking count for most of 2026. Charlie Curnow went past in Round 18 and finished the home and away on 69, six clear of Logan Morris.
NBL
Q1 lead64.3%
Half-time lead73.4%
The season, counted3 min readUp at quarter-time: what six NBL seasons say about early leadsHow often the NBL team ahead after the first quarter, or at half-time, went on to win: 964 games from 2020-21 to 2025-26, by size of lead and in finals.
NBL
ADL83%
TAS82%
ILL67%
PER64%
SYD53%
NZL47%
SEM44%
BRI38%
CNS33%
MEL32%
The season, counted3 min readThree times more NBL court time left the league than changed clubsOf the minutes NBL clubs played in 2025-26, 54% are back at the same club, 12% moved to another NBL club and 34% belong to players on no NBL list at all.
NBL
1510R1R5R9R13R17R21R22SydneyAdelaideMelbourne
The season, counted3 min readThe 2025-26 NBL season, round by roundHow Sydney went from 7–7 after Round 11 to the top of the NBL ladder and the title, with the final ladder and the five-game championship series.
NBL311
2024-252025-26Sam Mennenga 11.917.7 Sam Mennenga
The season, counted3 min readSam Mennenga scored 5.8 more points a game than last NBL seasonSam Mennenga scored 5.8 more points a game in 2025-26 than 2024-25, the biggest rise among 42 NBL players with real minutes in both seasons.
NBL
Threes+0.3
Twos+3.0
Free throws+2.5
The season, counted3 min readMore points, same threes: how NBL scoring rose without the long ballNBL teams scored 5.8 more points a game in 2025-26 than in 2020-21 while making almost the same number of threes; this is where the extra points came from.
AFL
FRE137.2
SYD136.1
BRI121.7
HAW120.1
The season, counted2 min readThe last four: every game of the AFL preliminary finalists' 2026 seasonsFremantle, Sydney, Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn finished first to fourth and are the last four: every game of their 2026 seasons, side by side.
AFL
No rain164
<1mm156
1–2mm152
2–5mm144
5mm+143
The season, counted4 min readDoes rain change an AFL game?Rain takes about 20 points off an AFL game. Only 13 games in eight seasons were properly wet, and the gap between games is twice the gap between wet and dry.
AFL
1918ORR4R8R12R16R20R24Fremantle
The season, counted2 min readFremantle went from 13th to top, and stayed there for 14 roundsRound by round: how the AFL's minor premiers climbed the ladder, what their margins looked like on the way, and how their finals have gone so far.
NBL
The season, counted3 min readWhere the NBL shoots fromEvery shot of the 2026 NBL season on one court: the rim, the arc, and the 8.5% of shots taken in the middle of the floor, where nobody wants to be.
AFL
010203040Nick Daicos (COL)34.7
The season, counted3 min read34.7 a game: Nick Daicos against every AFL playerNick Daicos averaged 34.7 disposals a game in 2026, the most of 472 AFL players with 10 or more games, and had 35 or more in 13 of 23 games.
NRL
PEN+336
WAR+310
DOL+156
SYD+118
CRO+149
NEW+42
The season, counted2 min readThe last six: every game of the NRL finalists' 2026 seasonsPenrith, the Warriors, the Dolphins, the Roosters, Cronulla and Newcastle are the last six in the NRL finals: every game of their season, side by side.
NRL51
GLD5,384
PEN4,874
GLD4,860
PEN4,762
MEL4,595
NEW4,514
The season, counted3 min readThe longest carry: who runs the ball in the NRL, and how farPhillip Sami ran 5,384 metres in 2026, more than anyone. Every NRL player's running by the metre, and the props who cover the same ground in half the time.
NRL22
0102030R1R5R9R13R17R21R25FW1Thomas Jenkins 30Alex Johnston 30Greg Marzhew 24
The season, counted2 min readThirty tries each: the NRL try-scorer raceThomas Jenkins and Alex Johnston are level on 30 tries after Finals Week 1: how the race ran round by round, and the two very different ways they got there.
WNBA
181510 May7 Jun5 Jul2 Aug30 AugMinnesota
The season, counted3 min readMinnesota on top: the 2026 WNBA table, week by weekHow Minnesota Lynx went from 10th to top of the 2026 WNBA table and stayed there, with every team's point differential, the longest streaks and home v away.
The notebook, by email

New articles, by email. At most one a day, and never a pick.

How we count

The method behind every figure in the notebook.

Research method3 min read

8 of the last 10 is closer to 6 of 10, in every sport

Every time a player had cleared a line in 8 of their last 10 games, across the AFL, NRL, NBL, WNBA and NBA, and how often the next game went over.

Research method6 min read

There's a HUGE problem in sports betting in Australia.

Australian punters have never had more stats. The problem is how we read them, and we learned that the hard way too.

Research method5 min read

Sample size: the number next to the number

70% off 20 games and 70% off 3 games are not the same claim. The range a fair coin covers at 5, 10 and 20 games, and the four floors this site uses.

Research method4 min read

Wet weather splits: what a wet game actually changes

What counts as a wet game here, how seldom one happens, why most twenty-game windows have no wet split at all, and what the game rows say the rain does.

Research method4 min read

Why the opponent matters more than the player

Everyone checks the head-to-head. It is two or three games. What the other club gives up is measured over a whole season — how that table is built, and how to read it.

Research method3 min read

Reading a hit rate like a professional

Hit rate vs implied chance vs the gap between them — the three-number frame behind every decision on the site.

AFL, NRL, NBL, WNBA, NBA and NFL player-props research: hit rates, game logs and matchups — so every prop is a decision, not a guess.

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© 2026 Project Punt Pty Ltd · ABN 99 701 641 698 · Sydney · 18+. Gamble responsibly. Every number is a count of what already happened, with what it is out of. Nothing here is a tip.