0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.4 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 4.2/game vs a 3.5 league average
vs them: averages 2.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 19: 3 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Try Assists
4.2per game · league avg 3.5
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Try Assists
At Allianz Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.5(41)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Try Assists
Wet games (≥1mm)1.3(4)+0.8
Dry games0.5(37)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Try Assists
Avg diff
-0.3
Avg diff %
-75%
Hit rate
0/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02WSTPatrick Herbert0.30-100%
08-02WSTAdam Doueihi0.70-100%
08-02WSTJunior Tupou0.000%
08-02WSTHeamasi Makasini0.10-100%
08-02WSTSunia Turuva0.10-100%
08-02WSTJarome Luai0.80-100%
08-02WSTJahream Bula0.40-100%
08-02WSTTerrell May0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Matthew's. Computed from this app's own records.