0.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.0
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 28.6/game vs a 23.6 league average
vs them: averages 8.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 8: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Points
28.6per game · league avg 23.6
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Points
At Allianz Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else1.3(41)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)3.0(4)+1.9
Dry games1.1(37)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Points
Avg diff
-0.6
Avg diff %
-87%
Hit rate
0/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02WSTPatrick Herbert0.60-100%
08-02WSTTerrell May0.20-100%
08-02WSTJunior Tupou0.000%
08-02WSTHeamasi Makasini0.30-100%
08-02WSTSunia Turuva0.80-100%
08-02WSTJarome Luai1.00-100%
08-02WSTJahream Bula1.40-100%
08-02WSTApisai Koroisau0.70-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Matthew's. Computed from this app's own records.