16.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 16.8 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 15.2
+0.6 opponent leak — they concede 193.8/game vs a 186.3 league average
vs them: averages 13.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Runs
193.8per game · league avg 186.3
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At Allianz Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else14.0(41)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)10.0(4)-4.5
Dry games14.5(37)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Runs
Avg diff
+1.2
Avg diff %
+7%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02WSTJunior Tupou14.315+5%
08-02WSTTerrell May17.126+52%
08-02WSTAlex Twal14.716+9%
08-02WSTJahream Bula17.815-16%
07-23PENCasey McLean14.715+2%
07-23PENBrian To'o19.021+11%
07-23PENThomas Jenkins19.218-6%
07-23PENIsaiah Papali'i14.9150%
Similar = season average within ±2.5 of Matthew's. Computed from this app's own records.