Every hit rate this site has shown, checked against what then happened. When our numbers drift, this page says so first.
How this is graded
For every completed game since 2024, we rebuild the number the player page would have shown before it: the player's prior games that season, the default line at the prior average, and the over hit rate against it — for each code's featured market (AFL disposals, NRL run metres, NBL points, WNBA points, NBA points). The game's actual figure then either cleared that line or didn't.
Rules the grade keeps: fewer than 5 prior games and the game is skipped — the page would have flagged that sample as thin, so grading it would grade a claim we caveated. A game landing exactly on the line resolves neither side and is excluded, never counted as a miss. Buckets under 30 resolutions are marked thin, and under 200 in total the whole page says so instead of pretending. This describes how our published numbers have held up; it says nothing about any future game.