0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.7
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 4.7/game vs a 3.9 league average
vs them: averages 2.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 19: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Line Break Assists
4.7per game · league avg 3.9
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Line Break Assists
At Allianz Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.7(41)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Line Break Assists
Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(4)+0.4
Dry games0.6(37)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Line Break Assists
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
-29%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02WSTPatrick Herbert0.41+150%
08-02WSTAdam Doueihi0.81+18%
08-02WSTJunior Tupou0.000%
08-02WSTHeamasi Makasini0.10-100%
08-02WSTSunia Turuva0.10-100%
08-02WSTJarome Luai0.80-100%
08-02WSTJahream Bula0.60-100%
08-02WSTTerrell May0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Matthew's. Computed from this app's own records.