0.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.5
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 6.3/game vs a 5.1 league average
vs them: averages 1.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Line Breaks
6.3per game · league avg 5.1
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Line Breaks
At Allianz Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else0.5(41)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Line Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)0.5(4)
Dry games0.5(37)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Line Breaks
Avg diff
+0.0
Avg diff %
+1%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02WSTPatrick Herbert0.21+400%
08-02WSTAdam Doueihi0.71+44%
08-02WSTJunior Tupou0.30-100%
08-02WSTHeamasi Makasini0.20-100%
08-02WSTSunia Turuva0.61+67%
08-02WSTJarome Luai0.30-100%
08-02WSTJahream Bula0.30-100%
08-02WSTTerrell May0.20-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Matthew's. Computed from this app's own records.