from 2.2 baseline, +0.0 opponent leak

• 2.2 baseline — their last 10 games; only 0 this season, too few to blend
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 36.3/game vs a 36 league average
• −0.0 at this ground — averages 4 there against his own 4.6 in those same seasons — 99% of his own level (7 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.0 over 7 games — 78% of his own level in those seasons — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 17: 6 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.