• 1.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.0
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 39/game vs a 35.7 league average
• −0.2 at this ground — averages 0.9 there (64 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.7 over 9 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.