from 53.2 baseline, −2.9 at this ground

• 53.2 baseline — their last 10 games; only 0 this season, too few to blend
• +1.7 opponent leak — they concede 1589.5/game vs a 1540.4 league average
• −2.9 at this ground — averages 68.6 there against his own 77.6 in those same seasons — 95% of his own level (7 gm)
• vs them: averages 78.6 over 7 games — 88% of his own level in those seasons — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.