from 6.7 baseline, +0.7 at this ground

• 6.7 baseline — their last 10 games; only 0 this season, too few to blend
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 160.4/game vs a 155.4 league average
• +0.7 at this ground — averages 7.9 there against his own 7.4 in those same seasons — 111% of his own level (7 gm)
• vs them: averages 6.9 over 7 games — 76% of his own level in those seasons — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 17: 17 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.