from 0.8 baseline, −0.2 at this ground

• 0.8 baseline — their last 10 games; only 0 this season, too few to blend
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 16.6/game vs a 18.9 league average
• −0.2 at this ground — averages 0.9 there against his own 1.1 in those same seasons — 77% of his own level (7 gm)
• vs them: averages 0.7 over 7 games — 80% of his own level in those seasons — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.