from 0.3 baseline, −0.1 at this ground

• 0.3 baseline — their last 10 games; only 0 this season, too few to blend
• −0.0 opponent leak — they concede 8.6/game vs a 9.4 league average
• −0.1 at this ground — averages 0.4 there against his own 0.7 in those same seasons — 66% of his own level (7 gm) · held at the ceiling one adjustment is allowed; the raw effect over this sample was larger
• vs them: averages 0.7 over 7 games — 147% of his own level in those seasons — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.