from 13.2 baseline, +0.6 opponent leak

• 13.2 baseline — their last 10 games; only 0 this season, too few to blend
• +0.6 opponent leak — they concede 384.5/game vs a 368.4 league average
• −0.5 at this ground — averages 16.7 there against his own 19 in those same seasons — 96% of his own level (7 gm)
• vs them: averages 18.9 over 7 games — 87% of his own level in those seasons — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.