• 25.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 25.2 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 25.2
• −0.4 opponent leak — they concede 363.9/game vs a 369 league average
• −2.5 at this ground — averages 22.7 there (84 gm)
• vs them: averages 22.9 over 14 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 5: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.