• 11.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 11.7 (12 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 11.2
• −0.1 opponent leak — they concede 184.9/game vs a 185.9 league average
• −1.3 at this ground — averages 10.2 there (5 gm)
• vs them: averages 11.9 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 20: 0 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.