• 2.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.3 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.2
• +0.1 opponent leak — they concede 33.9/game vs a 32.8 league average
• −0.6 at this ground — averages 2.1 there (11 gm)

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 21: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.