0.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 26.7/game vs a 23.7 league average
−0.5 at this ground — averages 0.3 there (18 gm)
vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Points
26.7per game · league avg 23.7
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Points
At CommBank Stadium0.3(18)-0.2
Everywhere else0.6(14)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games0.4(32)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NQL · Points
Avg diff
-0.6
Avg diff %
-100%
Hit rate
0/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDAJ Brimson0.70-100%
08-06GLDBeau Fermor0.40-100%
08-06GLDDean Ieremia0.80-100%
08-06GLDJojo Fifita1.60-100%
08-06GLDMoeaki Fotuaika0.20-100%
08-06GLDTino Fa'asuamaleaui0.20-100%
08-06GLDKeano Kini0.60-100%
08-06GLDChris Randall0.20-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Ryley's. Computed from this app's own records.