• 2.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.2 (10 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.2
• +0.0 opponent leak — they concede 186/game vs a 185.9 league average
• −0.2 at this ground — averages 2 there (18 gm)
• vs them: averages 4.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 23: 8 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.