3.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.7 (6 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.7
−0.4 opponent leak — they concede 475.8/game vs a 544.2 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SYD concede · Post Contact Metres
475.8per game · league avg 544.2
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Post Contact Metres
At CommBank Stadium8.3(3)+1.3
Everywhere else7.0(17)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Post Contact Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)11.0(2)+4.2
Dry games6.8(18)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SYD · Post Contact Metres
Avg diff
+0.5
Avg diff %
+12%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07CBYBailey Hayward2.80-100%
07-30NQLKaiden Lahrs2.70-100%
07-30NQLEthan King1.90-100%
07-30NQLSoni Luke3.47+107%
07-24NEWPhoenix Crossland1.72+18%
07-11PARJonah Pezet3.15+59%
06-26BRIBen Hunt2.68+212%
06-26BRIThomas Duffy3.94+2%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Luke's. Computed from this app's own records.
Liam Henry38.5