4.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 4.5 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.9
+0.3 opponent leak — they concede 365.4/game vs a 344.9 league average
−0.4 at this ground — averages 4.3 there (26 gm)
vs them: averages 3.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 15: 14 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Tackles
365.4per game · league avg 344.9
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackles
At Suncorp Stadium4.3(26)+0.2
Everywhere else4.1(20)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)10.0(2)+6.1
Dry games3.9(44)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs WAR · Tackles
Avg diff
+1.1
Avg diff %
+29%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENBrian To'o4.72-57%
08-07PENThomas Jenkins5.35-6%
08-07PENJack Cole4.224+474%
08-07PENBilly Scott4.80-100%
08-07PENJaxen Edgar4.34-8%
08-01GLDDean Ieremia4.02-50%
08-01GLDKeano Kini3.34+23%
08-01GLDPhillip Sami3.62-44%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Josiah's. Computed from this app's own records.