2.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.2 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.5
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 34.4/game vs a 32.8 league average
−0.1 at this ground — averages 2.2 there (26 gm)
vs them: averages 1.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Tackle Breaks
34.4per game · league avg 32.8
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At Suncorp Stadium2.2(26)-0.3
Everywhere else2.5(20)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)6.0(2)+3.9
Dry games2.1(44)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs WAR · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
-0.1
Avg diff %
+9%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENLindsay Smith1.010%
08-07PENIsaah Yeo1.91-48%
08-07PENNathan Cleary2.41-59%
08-07PENMoses Leota0.81+25%
08-07PENIsaiah Papali'i2.30-100%
08-07PENLiam Martin1.92+4%
08-07PENIzack Tago1.35+285%
08-07PENLiam Henry1.51-35%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Josiah's. Computed from this app's own records.