• 43.2 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
• −4.5 opponent leak — they concede 1511.1/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• vs them: averages 49.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 8: 108 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.