1.2 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.2 (5 gm) + 0.4 × last 5 1.2
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 194.8/game vs a 185.9 league average
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
BRI concede · Runs
194.8per game · league avg 185.9
#3 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At Suncorp Stadium—(0)
Everywhere else1.2(5)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)—(0)
Dry games1.2(5)
Only 0 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs BRI · Runs
Avg diff
-0.2
Avg diff %
-39%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08DOLBrian Pouniu1.10-100%
08-01NEWPhoenix Crossland2.04+100%
08-01NEWToby Winter0.000%
07-25NQLEthan King0.80-100%
07-16PENBilly Scott0.30-100%
07-16PENJack Cole1.60-100%
07-04CROJayden Berrell1.11-10%
07-04CROHarrison Hassett0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Luke's. Computed from this app's own records.