13.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 13.7 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 13.6
+0.5 opponent leak — they concede 192.6/game vs a 185.9 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 13.0 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Runs
192.6per game · league avg 185.9
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Runs
At CommBank Stadium12.0(3)-1.4
Everywhere else13.4(106)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Runs
Wet games (≥1mm)14.6(5)+1.3
Dry games13.3(104)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Runs
Avg diff
-0.9
Avg diff %
-7%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08SOUTevita Tatola13.113-1%
08-08SOUAlex Johnston12.411-11%
08-08SOUTallis Duncan14.213-8%
08-08SOUJack Wighton11.99-24%
08-08SOUCameron Murray12.112-1%
08-08SOUJye Gray13.415+12%
08-02WSTJunior Tupou14.315+5%
08-02WSTHeamasi Makasini13.910-28%
Similar = season average within ±2.1 of Jason's. Computed from this app's own records.