152.4 baseline — 0.6 × season 154.3 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 149.6
+11.1 opponent leak — they concede 1810.8/game vs a 1687.8 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 141.7 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 241 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Run Metres
1810.8per game · league avg 1687.8
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Run Metres
At CommBank Stadium124.0(3)-19.7
Everywhere else143.7(106)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Run Metres
Wet games (≥1mm)152.8(5)+10.1
Dry games142.7(104)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Run Metres
Avg diff
+10.0
Avg diff %
+6%
Hit rate
5/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08SOUTallis Duncan132.6105-21%
08-08SOUAlex Johnston135.2145+7%
08-08SOUDavid Fifita139.6147+5%
08-08SOUKeaon Koloamatangi170.4192+13%
08-02WSTSunia Turuva137.2170+24%
08-02WSTJahream Bula161.2148-8%
08-02WSTJunior Tupou139.0128-8%
08-02WSTTerrell May152.0212+39%
Similar = season average within ±23.1 of Jason's. Computed from this app's own records.