0.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (11 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 5.1/game vs a 4.2 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (3 gm) — shown, adds nothing
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SGI concede · Tries
5.1per game · league avg 4.2
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tries
At CommBank Stadium0.3(3)-0.2
Everywhere else0.5(18)
Only 3 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-0.5
Dry games0.5(20)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SGI · Tries
Avg diff
-0.2
Avg diff %
-55%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-09CROMawene Hiroti0.10-100%
08-09CRONicho Hynes0.40-100%
08-09CROSione Katoa0.81+27%
08-09CROJesse Ramien0.41+133%
08-09CRORonaldo Mulitalo0.90-100%
08-09CROBraydon Trindall0.40-100%
08-09CROWilliam Kennedy0.50-100%
08-09CROAddin Fonua-Blake0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Luke's. Computed from this app's own records.