• 49.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 49.2 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 48.6
• +6.6 opponent leak — they concede 1914.7/game vs a 1686.6 league average
• −5.6 at this ground — averages 43.4 there (13 gm)
• vs them: averages 59.3 over 7 games — evidence, never summed

Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 16: 95 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.