3.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 3.2 (18 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 3.5
+0.4 opponent leak — they concede 36.5/game vs a 32.7 league average
−0.5 at this ground — averages 2.8 there (12 gm)
vs them: averages 2.0 over 10 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Tackle Breaks
36.5per game · league avg 32.7
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At CommBank Stadium2.8(12)
Everywhere else2.7(112)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)2.6(8)-0.1
Dry games2.7(116)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs NQL · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+1.4
Avg diff %
+63%
Hit rate
6/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDTino Fa'asuamaleaui1.85+174%
08-06GLDBeau Fermor2.16+186%
08-06GLDPhillip Sami3.55+45%
08-06GLDJayden Campbell2.51-60%
08-06GLDJojo Fifita2.56+140%
08-06GLDKeano Kini4.75+8%
08-06GLDAJ Brimson1.93+54%
08-06GLDKurtis Morrin1.81-45%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Brian's. Computed from this app's own records.