0.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.6 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 24.4/game vs a 23.6 league average
at this ground: too thin to count (1 gm) — shown, adds nothing
vs them: averages 0.0 over 1 game — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 3: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 15: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
SOU concede · Points
24.4per game · league avg 23.6
#9 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Points
At Allianz Stadium0.0(1)-0.5
Everywhere else0.5(31)
Only 1 game at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(2)-0.5
Dry games0.5(30)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs SOU · Points
Avg diff
+0.1
Avg diff %
+65%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-02CROBriton Nikora0.94+367%
08-02CROOregon Kaufusi0.20-100%
08-02CROJesse Ramien1.50-100%
08-02CROBlayke Brailey0.54+650%
08-02CROTeig Wilton1.60-100%
08-02CROCameron McInnes0.000%
08-02CROWilliam Kennedy1.90-100%
08-02CROJesse Colquhoun0.70-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Kitione's. Computed from this app's own records.