1.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.8 (20 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.2
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 27.1/game vs a 23.7 league average
+0.4 at this ground — averages 1.3 there (6 gm)
vs them: averages 0.0 over 3 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
BRI concede · Points
27.1per game · league avg 23.7
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Points
At Suncorp Stadium1.3(6)+0.9
Everywhere else0.4(38)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(2)-0.6
Dry games0.6(42)
Only 2 wet games on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs BRI · Points
Avg diff
+0.6
Avg diff %
+22%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08DOLIsaiya Katoa0.60-100%
08-08DOLFrancis Molo0.000%
08-08DOLHerbie Farnworth1.94+111%
08-08DOLKodi Nikorima0.70-100%
08-08DOLThomas Flegler0.50-100%
08-08DOLJeremy Marshall-King0.70-100%
08-08DOLJack Bostock1.60-100%
08-08DOLConnelly Lemuelu1.28+567%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Jacob's. Computed from this app's own records.