0.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (16 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 36.5/game vs a 32.8 league average
+0.3 at this ground — averages 0.9 there (18 gm)
vs them: averages 1.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Tackle Breaks
36.5per game · league avg 32.8
#2 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At CommBank Stadium0.9(18)+0.1
Everywhere else0.8(17)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(1)-0.9
Dry games0.9(34)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NQL · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+0.9
Avg diff %
+18%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDTino Fa'asuamaleaui1.85+174%
08-06GLDJosh Patston0.50-100%
08-06GLDAJ Brimson1.93+54%
08-06GLDMoeaki Fotuaika1.21-17%
08-06GLDBeau Fermor2.16+186%
08-06GLDChris Randall1.00-100%
08-06GLDDean Ieremia1.42+43%
08-06GLDSam Verrills0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Charlie's. Computed from this app's own records.