0.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.5 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.5
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 10.3/game vs a 9.7 league average
+0.2 at this ground — averages 0.7 there (18 gm)
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 15: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
NQL concede · Offloads
10.3per game · league avg 9.7
#5 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Offloads
At CommBank Stadium0.7(18)+0.4
Everywhere else0.3(18)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Offloads
Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(1)+0.5
Dry games0.5(35)
Only 1 wet game on record — thin evidence.
Similar players vs NQL · Offloads
Avg diff
-0.2
Avg diff %
-35%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-06GLDPhillip Sami0.61+67%
08-06GLDTino Fa'asuamaleaui0.91+13%
08-06GLDJojo Fifita0.71+38%
08-06GLDAJ Brimson0.40-100%
08-06GLDJayden Campbell0.80-100%
08-06GLDMoeaki Fotuaika0.30-100%
08-06GLDDean Ieremia0.000%
08-06GLDBeau Fermor0.80-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Isaiah's. Computed from this app's own records.