1.0 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.1 (21 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 10.8/game vs a 9.7 league average
−0.8 at this ground — averages 0.3 there (4 gm)
vs them: averages 0.6 over 8 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 6: 5 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
PAR concede · Offloads
10.8per game · league avg 9.7
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Offloads
At CommBank Stadium0.3(4)-0.8
Everywhere else1.1(137)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Offloads
Wet games (≥1mm)1.1(7)+0.1
Dry games1.0(134)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs PAR · Offloads
Avg diff
-0.2
Avg diff %
-85%
Hit rate
1/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-08SOUJack Wighton0.30-100%
08-08SOUTevita Tatola0.10-100%
08-08SOUAlex Johnston0.50-100%
08-08SOUTallis Duncan0.81+20%
08-08SOUCody Walker0.60-100%
08-08SOUAshton Ward0.30-100%
08-08SOUMatthew Dufty0.20-100%
08-08SOUBrandon Smith0.20-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Scott's. Computed from this app's own records.