0.1 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.1 (19 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.1
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 4.5/game vs a 4.1 league average
+0.0 wet forecast — averages 0.1 in the wet (7 gm)
vs them: averages 0.0 over 7 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 7: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 11: 1 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o2.5
Game conditionsHBF Park · PerthRound 23 · 2026-08-08 13:00☁ 11°C☂ 1.9mm (100%)🌬 15.4 km/hWet ball risk
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Tanielavs all playersStatMEL concedePer game
133.3
81
Run Metresneutral
50
1698.3
Taniela 133.3/game
MEL concedes 1698.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.8
63
Tackle Breaksneutral
56
33.3
Taniela 1.8/game
MEL concedes 33.3/game · league avg 32.7
#8 of 17 clubs most conceded
25.5
76
Tacklesunfavorable
25
338.1
Taniela 25.5/game
MEL concedes 338.1/game · league avg 344.9
#13 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
42
Triesneutral
69
4.5
Taniela 0.1/game
MEL concedes 4.5/game · league avg 4.1
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.0
0
Try Assistsneutral
63
3.6
Taniela 0.0/game
MEL concedes 3.6/game · league avg 3.5
#7 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.1
41
Line Breaksneutral
94
6.5
Taniela 0.1/game
MEL concedes 6.5/game · league avg 5.1
#2 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.8
83
Offloadsneutral
50
9.8
Taniela 0.8/game
MEL concedes 9.8/game · league avg 9.8
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
60.5
97
Post Contact Metresfavorable
69
569.6
Taniela 60.5/game
MEL concedes 569.6/game · league avg 545.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Taniela133.3
81
MEL1698.3
50
Taniela 133.3/game
MEL concedes 1698.3/game · league avg 1690.9
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksneutral
Taniela1.8
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
MEL concede · Tries
4.5per game · league avg 4.1
#6 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Tries
At HBF Park—(0)
Everywhere else0.1(100)
Only 0 games at this ground — thin evidence.
Wet vs dry · Tries
Wet games (≥1mm)0.1(7)+0.1
Dry games0.0(93)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs MEL · Tries
Avg diff
+0.2
Avg diff %
+22%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31CBYEnari Tuala0.20-100%
07-31CBYLachlan Galvin0.40-100%
07-31CBYJacob Kiraz0.60-100%
07-31CBYMatt Burton0.31+217%
07-31CBYJethro Rinakama0.51+100%
07-31CBYStephen Crichton0.42+357%
07-31CBYConnor Tracey0.20-100%
07-31CBYMax King0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Taniela's. Computed from this app's own records.
