2.5 baseline — 0.6 × season 2.5 (11 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 2.4
+0.1 opponent leak — they concede 351.7/game vs a 344.7 league average
+2.3 at this ground — averages 4.8 there (28 gm)
vs them: averages 3.8 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
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Splits · o2.5
Game conditions4 Pines Park · SydneyRound 24 · 2026-08-14 18:00☁ 13.1°C☂ 0mm (0%)🌬 6.7 km/hClear
Matchup Analyser
Percentile rankings · 2026
higher = more over-friendly
Tomvs all playersStatDOL concedePer game
159.6
92
Run Metresneutral
38
1652.5
Tom 159.6/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
3.1
86
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
13
30.4
Tom 3.1/game
DOL concedes 30.4/game · league avg 32.7
#15 of 17 clubs most conceded
2.5
6
Tacklesneutral
69
351.7
Tom 2.5/game
DOL concedes 351.7/game · league avg 344.7
#6 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.6
93
Triesneutral
38
4.0
Tom 0.6/game
DOL concedes 4.0/game · league avg 4.2
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.7
95
Try Assistsneutral
50
3.5
Tom 0.7/game
DOL concedes 3.5/game · league avg 3.5
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
0.5
79
Line Breaksneutral
50
4.8
Tom 0.5/game
DOL concedes 4.8/game · league avg 5.1
#9 of 17 clubs most conceded
1.5
95
Offloadsunfavorable
0
8.0
Tom 1.5/game
DOL concedes 8.0/game · league avg 9.7
#17 of 17 clubs most conceded
38.3
71
Post Contact Metresneutral
44
539.6
Tom 38.3/game
DOL concedes 539.6/game · league avg 544.6
#10 of 17 clubs most conceded
Run Metresneutral
Tom159.6
92
DOL1652.5
38
Tom 159.6/game
DOL concedes 1652.5/game · league avg 1687.8
#11 of 17 clubs most conceded
Tackle Breaksunfavorable
Tom3.1
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
DOL concede · Tackles
351.7per game · league avg 344.7
#6 of 17 most conceded
Middle of the road matchup.
Venue split · Tackles
At 4 Pines Park4.8(28)+0.2
Everywhere else4.6(57)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackles
Wet games (≥1mm)2.9(7)-1.9
Dry games4.8(78)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs DOL · Tackles
Avg diff
+1.2
Avg diff %
+67%
Hit rate
3/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
07-31SGISetu Tu3.33-9%
07-31SGITyrell Sloan3.48+135%
07-11CROSione Katoa1.50-100%
07-05NEWGreg Marzhew1.81-44%
07-05NEWDominic Young2.01-49%
06-12SYDCody Ramsey2.06+200%
06-12SYDJunior Tupou3.30-100%
06-12SYDRex Bassingthwaighte1.59+500%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Tom's. Computed from this app's own records.
Nathan Brown19.5