• 1.6 baseline — 0.6 × season 1.5 (11 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 1.6
• −0.3 opponent leak — they concede 8/game vs a 9.7 league average
• −0.2 at this ground — averages 1.4 there (28 gm)
• vs them: averages 2.5 over 4 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.