• 4.8 baseline — 0.6 × season 5.2 (15 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 4.1
• +0.2 opponent leak — they concede 193.8/game vs a 186.3 league average
• at this ground: too thin to count (2 gm) — shown, adds nothing
• vs them: averages 11.5 over 2 games — evidence, never summed

Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.