0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.7 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.7
+0.0 opponent leak — they concede 34.4/game vs a 32.8 league average
+0.0 at this ground — averages 0.7 there (18 gm)
vs them: averages 1.8 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▲venue ▲projection ·
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 17: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Tackle Breaks
34.4per game · league avg 32.8
#4 of 17 most conceded
They leak this stat — friendly matchup for the over.
Venue split · Tackle Breaks
At Suncorp Stadium0.7(18)-0.8
Everywhere else1.5(57)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Tackle Breaks
Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(5)-0.3
Dry games1.3(70)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Tackle Breaks
Avg diff
+0.4
Avg diff %
+24%
Hit rate
4/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENLindsay Smith1.010%
08-07PENJack Cole0.10-100%
08-07PENMoses Leota0.81+25%
08-07PENFreddy Lussick0.60-100%
08-07PENLiam Martin1.92+4%
08-07PENIsaah Yeo1.91-48%
08-07PENIzack Tago1.35+285%
08-07PENScott Sorensen0.51+122%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Grant's. Computed from this app's own records.