0.7 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.6 (13 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.8
−0.2 opponent leak — they concede 16.2/game vs a 23.7 league average
+0.4 at this ground — averages 1.1 there (18 gm)
vs them: averages 2.0 over 4 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Round 14: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away. Round 17: 4 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
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Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Points
16.2per game · league avg 23.7
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Points
At Suncorp Stadium1.1(18)-0.3
Everywhere else1.4(57)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)2.4(5)+1.1
Dry games1.3(70)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Points
Avg diff
-0.9
Avg diff %
-87%
Hit rate
0/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENFreddy Lussick0.80-100%
08-07PENLiam Martin1.70-100%
08-07PENIzack Tago0.60-100%
08-07PENMoses Leota0.000%
08-07PENLindsay Smith0.60-100%
08-07PENIsaiah Papali'i0.60-100%
08-07PENPaul Alamoti2.10-100%
08-07PENIsaah Yeo0.50-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Grant's. Computed from this app's own records.