0.3 baseline — 0.6 × season 0.3 (14 gm) + 0.4 × last 10 0.4
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 16.2/game vs a 23.7 league average
−0.2 at this ground — averages 0.1 there (57 gm)
vs them: averages 0.0 over 5 games — evidence, never summed
SignalsL10 form ▼opponent ▼venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Points
16.2per game · league avg 23.7
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Points
At Suncorp Stadium0.1(57)-0.1
Everywhere else0.2(49)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(8)-0.2
Dry games0.2(98)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Points
Avg diff
-0.6
Avg diff %
-75%
Hit rate
0/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENLindsay Smith0.60-100%
08-07PENIsaah Yeo0.50-100%
08-07PENMoses Leota0.000%
08-07PENFreddy Lussick0.80-100%
08-07PENIsaiah Papali'i0.60-100%
08-07PENLiam Martin1.70-100%
08-07PENIzack Tago0.60-100%
08-07PENJack Cole0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Patrick's. Computed from this app's own records.