Only 3 games in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.
Projection
0.5+0.0 vs your line
0.4 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 16.2/game vs a 23.7 league average
+0.3 at this ground — averages 0.7 there (54 gm)
vs them: averages 2.0 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Points
16.2per game · league avg 23.7
#16 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Points
At Suncorp Stadium0.7(54)-0.2
Everywhere else0.8(48)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Points
Wet games (≥1mm)1.0(8)+0.3
Dry games0.7(94)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Points
Avg diff
-0.4
Avg diff %
-62%
Hit rate
0/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENLindsay Smith0.60-100%
08-07PENJack Cole0.000%
08-07PENMoses Leota0.000%
08-07PENFreddy Lussick0.80-100%
08-07PENIsaiah Papali'i0.60-100%
08-07PENIsaah Yeo0.50-100%
08-07PENIzack Tago0.60-100%
08-07PENScott Sorensen0.000%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Billy's. Computed from this app's own records.