Only 3 games in this filter — thin evidence, treat with care.
Projection
0.1−0.4 · line-ball
0.6 baseline — his last 10 games; only 3 this season, too few to blend
−0.1 opponent leak — they concede 3.5/game vs a 3.9 league average
−0.5 at this ground — averages 0.1 there (54 gm)
vs them: averages 0.3 over 6 games — evidence, never summed
Signalsopponent ▼venue ▼projection ·
Most signals here point under while you're on the over — worth reading the working above before you commit.
Derived, not measured — plain arithmetic over his real games, shown in full. Adjustments can overlap (a game at this ground can also be a wet one); they add simply, and this note is the admission. Finals Week 1: 2 — far outside his usual range; kept in the average, not smoothed away.
Line Over Under
Tap a bar for full game detail · newest on the right
Player percentile is among everyone with 5+ games this season. Opponent percentile is among the 18 clubs — p100 means they concede more of this stat than any other side.
WAR concede · Line Break Assists
3.5per game · league avg 3.9
#12 of 17 most conceded
Stingy against this stat — the over fights uphill.
Venue split · Line Break Assists
At Suncorp Stadium0.1(54)-0.1
Everywhere else0.2(48)
Since 2024, all stats real.
Wet vs dry · Line Break Assists
Wet games (≥1mm)0.0(8)-0.2
Dry games0.2(94)
Weather backfilled from station data at each venue.
Similar players vs WAR · Line Break Assists
Avg diff
+0.1
Avg diff %
-4%
Hit rate
2/8
beat their own average
DateTeamPlayerAvgResultDiff
08-07PENIzack Tago0.21+400%
08-07PENMoses Leota0.20-100%
08-07PENThomas Jenkins0.000%
08-07PENPaul Alamoti0.30-100%
08-07PENBrian To'o0.10-100%
08-07PENNathan Cleary1.22+70%
08-07PENJaxen Edgar0.30-100%
08-07PENFreddy Lussick0.10-100%
Similar = season average within ±1.5 of Billy's. Computed from this app's own records.